SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
Niners Hope for the Best — Outcome Uncertain

This just in! After years of overly optimistic predictions and embarrassing failures, I admit that I have no idea how good this year's 49ers team will be. After the first few games the offense looked better than expected, at least when quarterback J.T. O'Sullivan was not being sacked or fumbling. The defense had not been as good as it looked on paper, with the pass rush so anemic that people were wondering about the water at team headquarters.

A position-by-position analysis demonstrates strong improvement at some key positions, particularly at wide receiver, probably at quarterback, and potentially on the defensive line. The offensive line, a strong unit in recent years, looks weaker and may turn out to be a huge liability. The X factor is new offensive coordinator Mike Martz, whose schemes and tutoring have proven successful at maximizing the performance of available personnel.

The anointment of long-term journeyman J.T. O'Sullivan as the starting quarterback was a Martz surprise that seems to be paying off, especially with the season-ending shoulder injury to former team savior Alex Smith. Smith's downfall, and apparent banishment, is a big surprise to Niners fans who cheered his development into a competent NFL quarterback in his 2006 sophomore season. Instead of a leap to the next level in 2007, Smith suffered a shoulder injury that was at first minimized by team officials; he wound up with season-ending surgery. After a few lackluster exhibition outings this year, Smith and the team announced that his surgically repaired shoulder was broken. No one has explained when or how the fracture occurred, but it appears that Smith's career with the 49ers is over, especially since it would cost the team $9 million to bring him back next year.

Enter O'Sullivan, a UC Davis alum who played for Martz in Detroit last year after stints for eight teams in the NFL and Europe. In his first game he had three fumbles, an interception and four sacks, and seemed to forget his wide receivers. In the second he looked like the second coming of Joe Montana, throwing for 321 yards, the first 300-yard game for a 49er QB in four years. But he was sacked eight times, raising the question of how long he will survive. If he goes down, Shaun Hill, last year's surprisingly successful fill-in with two victories in relief of Smith and Trent Dilfer, will be the team's starter.

Running back Frank Gore is picking up where he left off as one of the NFL's premier backs, both running and catching the ball (1,538 combined yards in 2007). Gore will blossom further in Martz's attack — think Marshall Faulk. Off-season acquisition DeShaun Foster from the Carolina Panthers will be Gore's principal backup. Special-teams standout Michael Robinson, who can throw a pass on occasion, adds extra speed, and Zak Keasey is the new fullback, based on coaches' conclusion that he can make more offensive plays than last year's starter, Moran Fields.

The 49ers have solved their most glaring weakness from 2007 by signing wide receivers Bryant Johnson from Arizona and former Rams star Isaac Bruce, a mainstay of Martz's dazzling run-and-gun offense. The reliable Arnaz Battle is back, and rookie Josh Morgan, who had an outstanding pre-season, round out what looks like the best group of wide receivers for the Niners since Terrell Owens was thrown overboard. Tight end Vernon Davis, somewhat of a disappointment in his first three years, may finally flourish as a big, fast and sure-handed deep threat for Martz. The equally fast Delanie Walker should find a productive role as well.

The offensive line is clearly hurting with the losses of last year's starters, right tackle Kwame Harris (released) and perennial Pro Bowl left guard Larry Allen (retired). Second-year standout Joe Staley is the new starter at the critical left tackle position, trading places with Jonas Jennings, who is now the (injured) right tackle. So Barry Sims, released by the Raiders, is now the starter at right tackle. Center Eric Heitman is the line's best player, but guards Adam Snyder (Jennings' injury replacement at left tackle in 2007) and Tony Wragge (undrafted, with five career starts) are untested, with David Baas the primary backup for both. The result was 12 sacks for O'Sullivan in the first two games and rushing totals that were, given Gore's talent, a little disappointing. The line played much better in the third game, against a pitiful Detroit team, but its continued improvement is critical to the 49ers' success this year.

At linebacker, last year's NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Patrick Willis, has been joined on the inside by Takeo Spikes, a former first-round pick with 10 years' experience. Veteran Niner Jeff Ulbrich is sharing time with Spikes, at least while he is still learning the system. Another potential all-star, third-year player Manny Lawson, is back on the outside after missing almost all of 2007 with a torn ligament in his left knee. Third-year player Parys Haralson has performed so well at the other outside position that he has pushed one of the team's most important 2007 acquisitions, former Patriot Tully Banta-Cain, to the back of the bench. Roderick Green, with two sacks against Detroit, will help as well.

The defensive backfield is set with all-star Nate Clements and ball hawk Walt Harris at the corners, with strong backups in Shawntae Spencer, Donald Strickland, Marcus Hudson and up-and-coming sophomore Tarell Brown. The hard-hitting group of safeties includes Pro Bowler Michael Lewis and Mark Hudson as the starters, with special-teams star Keith Lewis and Dashon Goldson in reserve.

The question mark for the defense is the line. With the retirement of the legendary Bryant Young, the Niners are placing their hopes on newly signed free agent Justin Smith, the fourth overall pick in 2001, with 44.5 career sacks. Smith is joined on the line by starters Isaac Sopoaga, a fourth-year player who had 58 tackles in 2007, and nose tackle Aubrayo Franklin, in his second year with the team. The line rotation includes rookie Kentwan Balmer, the Niners' first-round pick, Ronald Fields and sophomore Ray McDonald. This is a promising group that stills needs to jell.

Place kicker Joe Nedney is one of the league's best, while punter Andy Lee is one of the best in NFL history. No problems here.

So how good are they? Time, and the development of the offensive and defensive lines, will tell. The NFC West is the league's weakest division, and Seattle no longer seems dominant. Fans dream.