SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS
49ers' Fortunes on the Rise — or Not?

In the week between the 49ers' fourth and fifth losses to begin their 2010 season, a comment by John Madden gave fans a glimmer of hope. Madden said that little could be predicted by a team's performance during the first four weeks of the season because teams use these games to test their strategies and lineups. Madden claimed that most teams hide their game plans and use their best players sparingly during the official preseason, using the first four real games to establish their real identities.

Unfortunately, the Niners didn't get the message, and their game 5 loss to Philadelphia looked like their previous losses to Seattle, New Orleans, Kansas City and Atlanta: disappointing displays of errors and underachievement. Playing well enough to make you think they could win and bad enough to make you wonder if they will ever win. On paper the 2010 49ers may be the best team ever to go 0 and 5.

San Francisco had a great pre-season (4-0, including a victory over Indianapolis) and an even better off-season, drafting two terrific offensive linemen in the first round and safety Taylor Mays from USC in the second. The O-line looks like it will be one of the league's best for years to come, but so far its play has been inconsistent.

Few doubt that the rookies, left guard Mike Iupati and right tackle Anthony Davis, have what it takes to excel in the NFL. Including left tackle Joe Staley, right guard Chilo Rachel and center David Baas (for the injured Eric Heitman), the line should — or will — be among the league's best. But so far it's a work in progress. After five games, running back Frank Gore is averaging just 3.5 yards a carry, well below his career average. Quarterback Alex Smith has been hurried and sacked far too many (10) times, and is averaging just 6.5 yards per attempt.

Part of the line's problems can be explained by inexperience and injuries to Heitman and Rachel, but the predictability of the offense must be considered as well. Coach Mike Singletary told the world that his offense would rely on a heavy dose of Gore, straight ahead. NFL coaches are anything but dumb, and defenses are taking Singletary — and recently fired offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye — at their word and successfully crowding the line to stop Gore.

The team's many weapons besides Gore have yet to be fully integrated into the offensive game plan. Tight end Vernon Davis, the NFL's best last season, has just two touchdowns after five games, and primarily runs the seam routes that 49er opponents anticipate. He is a prodigious talent who makes things happen every time he touches the ball. Davis needs more touches.

Ditto for WR Michael Crabtree. He missed the preseason with a neck injury, and seems to have just gotten into the flow during the fifth game, with nine catches. He and Davis have crazy-glue hands and are great runners after the catch. The Niners are loaded with talented receivers, including starter Josh Morgan and the speedy Delanie Walker (now injured), Ted Ginn Jr. and Dominique Ziegler, all of whom stretch the field and keep defenses guessing. Ginn is also the team's best kick returner in years. The alternate running backs, Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon, have hardly played, despite their obvious talent.

QB Smith is the cipher in the mix. After five games, his 71.6 rating is lower than what he achieved last year after becoming the starter halfway through the season, and lower than his mark as a second-year player in 2006. Sometimes he looks great, as he did in the opening drive and in two fourth-quarter scores against Philadelphia, throwing accurately for 15-plus yards to Crabtree and Davis on pressured third downs. But he also makes absolutely terrible plays every week, cluelessly throwing the ball to the other team or fumbling, as he did in the Philadelphia game, when he should throw the ball away. Smith is a smart player who can make great passes and run for first downs, but he is out of second chances.

Meanwhile, the 49ers' vaunted defense has yet to play up to its reputation and talent. Singletary promised that the defense and Gore's running would lead this year's team to the playoffs. The defense does seem strong at every position, but its lapses at key moments have been striking.

In his fourth year, inside linebacker Patrick Willis may be the league's best and once again leads the team in tackles. But the Niners' opponents seem better prepared than they were in previous years in keeping Willis from taking over games. Willis' inside teammate Takeo Spikes remains an inspired talent after 13 years in the league, with rookie NaVorro Bowman ready to spell him now and replace him later. On the outside, Manny Lawson, Parys Haralson, Ahmad Brooks and Travis LaBoy alternate to stop the run and pressure opposing QB.

The defensive line is also strong, with Aubrayo Franklin, backed by Ricky Jean Francois, clogging the middle, and the unstoppable Justin Smith and Isaac Sapoaga, backed up by Ray McDonald, on the outside. Yet this talented group is giving up 3.9 yards per run, failing to duplicate last season's performance.

The defensive backfield is one unit playing better than it did last year. Corner Nate Clements seems to have rebounded from his disappointing 2009 performance, breaking up passes and stopping the run. Shawntae Spencer continues to play competently, apparently fully recovered from his 2008 injury, but the teams needs more than it is getting from backups/nickel backs Tarell Brown, Will James (just back from an injury) and rookie Philip Adams. Rookie Mays, hyped as the second coming of Ronnie Lott, looks like the real deal at strong safety, taking over from the departed Michael Lewis in game 4 and immediately becoming one of the team's leading tacklers. Free safety Dashon Goldson is a ferocious hitter who makes plays all over the field. Not much depth at safety either, but the Niners hope for more from Reggie Smith and Curtis Taylor.

Talented but underperforming, the 2010 Niners were picked to win the NFC West and may still succeed. At this point the burden is on the coaching staff to figure out how to turn the team's undeniable talent into success where it matters.